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Nov 19, 2012

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Archer Dem

Max Hailperin can correct me if I'm wrong, but i calculated the odds of a Cunniff lead post-reduction using a hypergeometric distribution function. I calculated it in two cases: for 32 ballots and for 35 ballots. For 32 ballots we would need to pull at least 17 Franson ballots for Cunniff to take the lead. That gives a 26.455% chance of a Cunniff lead. For 35 ballots it is more interesting as it presents the possibility of a tie. A Cunniff win would occur with a maximum of 16 of his ballots being pulled, which occurs 31.8007% of the time. A tie would require exactly 17 Cunniff ballots and 18 Franson ballots to be pulled. The odds of this happening are 10.9358%.

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  • All of the statements, opinions, and views expressed on this site by Sally Jo Sorensen are solely her own, save when she attributes them to other sources.

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    Sorensen, editor and proprietor of Bluestem Prairie, served as a New Media training and strategy consultant for the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party from October 2009 through mid-April 2010. She now serves clients in the business and nonprofit sectors.

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